My Department is currently developing revised housing targets for the period 2025 onwards. This work is being undertaken with regard to, among other things, recently published research by the ESRI on population projections and structural housing demand. I expect it to be completed and revised targets to published later in the Autumn.
The ESRI research presents 12 scenarios of housing demand. Each allows for alternative rates of increase in population growth, household size and stock obsolescence, key determinants of the quantum of housing required. Taking the average of the 12 ESRI scenarios, the research suggests some 42,000 new homes would be required over the next decade to meet new household formation alone. This means, having regard also to pent-up demand, an average of at least 50,000 to 60,000 new homes would be needed per annum over the period.
I believe such an increase, a further step-change in the significant uplift in delivery in recent years, would go a long way to meeting existing and future demand. To this end, discussions are ongoing with the Minister for Public Expenditure, NDP Delivery and Reform as part of the Budget 2025 process, and I am confident the Exchequer allocation for my Department will reflect the step-change in social, affordable and overall housing delivery anticipated next year.
Public expenditure commitments to support delivery in subsequent years, while having regard to the Government's revised delivery targets, will be decided as part of the Budget process agreed with the Minister for Public Expenditure, NDP Delivery and Reform in the respective years.
