It is very difficult to predict the number of people who may be or become entitled under the scheme once it is finalised as there is limited data on cohabiting couples. Following analysis carried out by my Department, it is expected that approximately 500 new surviving cohabitant recipients could be added annually to the cost of providing a survivor's pension during the initial years.
The annualised cost associated with these claimants is estimated to be around €50 million. However, this estimate is subject to the caveat that it is difficult to predict the numbers of people entitled with any certainty, particularly where a death has occurred in the past.
The Existing Level of Service estimates (ELS) look to project the cost of delivering services on a no-policy-change basis, or in other words, providing services “as is”. As such, the ELS does not include the cost of new measures. Given that my officials are continuing to work closely with the Office of Parliamentary Counsel to finalise this legislation which will give effect to the proposed changes to the Widow’s, Widower’s, or Surviving Civil Partner’s Contributory Pension, and there is as yet, no definitive implementation date for the new measures, these additional costs were not factored into the 2025 ELS.
My Department has agreed with the Department of Public Expenditure, NDP Delivery and Reform that additional funding will be made available for expenditure relating to these changes when required.
I trust this clarifies the matter for the Deputy.