Dáil Éireann Debate, Tuesday - 23 September 2025
543. Deputy Shane Moynihan asked the Minister for Children, Disability and Equality for an update on the development of a forward planning model to identify and compare areas in terms of childcare need; and if she will make a statement on the matter. [49815/25]
View answerImproving access to quality and affordable Early Learning and Care and School Age Childcare is a key priority of Government.
A Forward Planning and Delivery Unit has been allocated additional staff and is pursuing an ambitious programme of work to identify areas of need, forecast demand, and deliver public supply within the childcare sector where required.
A forward planning model is in development which will be central to this Department's plans to achieve the policy goals set out in the Programme for Government to build an affordable, high-quality, accessible early childhood education and care system, with State-led facilities adding capacity.
The development of the forward planning model is currently underway utilising the expertise of statisticians on secondment from the Central Statistics Office and other specialists. The model seeks to identify the nature and volume of different types of early learning and childcare places across the country and how that aligns with the numbers of children in the corresponding age cohorts at local area level. An extensive data analysis and cleaning exercise is currently being undertaken to map available publicly subsidised supply. This involves combining data from multiple administrative sources, including child population data, using GIS (Geographical Information System) mapping tools.
Overall, early learning and childcare capacity is increasing. Data from the Annual Early Years Sector Profile shows that the estimated number of enrolments has increased by 19% in the previous two years. Core Funding application data shows that between Year 1 and Year 3 of the scheme, annual place hours increased by over 15%. The Tusla register of services demonstrates a net increase in the numbers of registered early learning and childcare services in 2024. However, it appears that demand for Early Learning and Care and School Age Childcare remains higher than available supply, particularly for younger children and in certain parts of the country.
Demand for early learning and childcare beyond sessional pre-school provision is highly elastic and shaped very substantially by families' individual composition, circumstances, and preferences; employment patterns and income; and the price and availability of services.
The analysis of the Forward Planning model will provide a key input into the approach to the capital programme to be resourced through the allocation in the revised National Development Plan 2026-30.
