Dáil Éireann Debate, Thursday - 9 October 2025
135. Deputy Ken O'Flynn asked the Minister for Finance if his Department has evaluated the sustainability of current expenditure levels in the event of a downturn in multinational corporation tax receipts. [54423/25]
View answer151. Deputy Ken O'Flynn asked the Minister for Finance given that the Government has increased its corporate tax forecast for 2026 to €34 billion despite the stalled OECD global tax deal, if he will publish the detailed revenue modelling underpinning this revision; the proportion attributed to the top ten multinational taxpayers; and the contingency plans if receipts fall back toward the earlier €28 billion forecast.; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [54441/25]
View answerI propose to take Questions Nos. 135 and 151 together.
The Economic and Fiscal Outlook document published as part of Budget 2026 sets out the latest fiscal projections. It provides an update regarding the impact on revenues from the OECD’s Two Pillar Framework and notes that international tax negotiations are still ongoing. An estimate of c. €3 billion for next year was incorporated into the tax forecast for 2026. This reflects the additional tax revenue payable under Pillar II of the OECD discussions i.e. minimum effective tax rates for large firms.
The Economic and Fiscal Outlook also notes the concentration of corporation tax receipts is a key downside risk. The State sources over half of its corporation tax receipts from just ten firms, leaving this revenue stream exposed to adverse industry- or firm-specific developments.
I would point out that my Department has published model simulations regarding the potential impact of a fall in corporation tax receipts. These are set out in last year's budgetary documentation.
In order to mitigate this exposure, the Government has established two investment funds to set aside a portion of 'windfall' tax receipts and that we will maintain a safe and affordable approach to overall budgetary policy; at the end of next year, there will be around €24 billion accumulated in these funds.
Government is also targeting large budgetary surpluses as a risk mitigation strategy.
