Dáil Éireann Debate, Tuesday - 4 November 2025
512. Deputy Ken O'Flynn asked the Minister for Finance if he will publish, alongside each annual Budget and Stability Programme Update, a consolidated schedule of contingent liabilities and public sector pension obligations to give a full picture of the State’s long-term financial exposure; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [59723/25]
View answer516. Deputy Ken O'Flynn asked the Minister for Finance if his Department has conducted an assessment of the potential impact on Ireland’s credit rating and debt-servicing costs were contingent liabilities to be fully recognised in the national balance sheet; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [59730/25]
View answer517. Deputy Ken O'Flynn asked the Minister for Finance if his Department has carried out stress-tests or scenario modelling to assess the State’s fiscal capacity to absorb contingent liabilities in the event of an economic downturn; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [59731/25]
View answerI propose to take Questions Nos. 512, 516 and 517 together.
First of all, I would like to note that, as detailed here (https://assets.gov.ie/static/documents/contingent-liabilities-an-overview-april-2021.pdf, some contingent liabilities are inherently uncertain or unknown until unexpected events take place. Therefore, it is extremely difficult to forecast.
However, my Department publishes the forecasts of the General Government Debt twice a year in the Annual Progress Report and in the Budget. My Department also periodically publishes public sector balance sheets. The last report was concluded in 2021 and is available here (https://www.gov.ie/en/department-of-finance/publications/irelands-public-sector-balance-sheet-april-2021/). In addition, the Central Statistics Office publishes the estimated pension liabilities of government here (https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-gfsa/governmentfinancestatistics2024october2025/financialaccounts/
It is also worth mentioning that, overall, the contingent liabilities as a share of national income have fallen over the last fifteen years. This aligns with the declining trend in the General Government Debt as a percentage of the national economy.
The best way to ensure the sustainability of our public finances is by running headline budgetary surpluses and ensuring that our tax base remains stable, as well as investing ‘windfall’ tax receipts into the Future Ireland Fund and Infrastructure, Climate and Nature Fund to prepare for future structural costs.
Finally, I would highlight that my Department regularly publishes debt sustainability analyses – scenarios outlining how the debt-income ratio would evolve in the event of a shock to the economy or to the public finances. This is in line with best international practice.
