Dáil Éireann Debate, Thursday - 20 November 2025
279. Deputy Ken O'Flynn asked the Tánaiste and Minister for Finance whether the Department has conducted any analysis of the potential fiscal impact on the State should hidden credit-line exposures materialise during a market-stress event; and to outline the scenarios modelled, the estimated scale of risk, and whether these findings have been shared with the Oireachtas Committee on Finance. [64781/25]
View answer286. Deputy Ken O'Flynn asked the Tánaiste and Minister for Finance the projected impact on the General Government Balance and General Government Debt should hidden credit-line exposures materialise; and to confirm whether contingency planning for such an event has been completed by his Department. [64792/25]
View answer290. Deputy Ken O'Flynn asked the Tánaiste and Minister for Finance whether his Department has modelled the potential impact of hidden credit-line exposures on the State's borrowing costs, including sovereign-bond spreads; and to outline what assumptions underpin those models. [64796/25]
View answer292. Deputy Ken O'Flynn asked the Tánaiste and Minister for Finance whether his Department has reviewed the adequacy of the State's fiscal buffers, including the National Reserve Fund, in light of the contingent exposures raised in the report; and to state whether additional provisioning will be considered. [64798/25]
View answer318. Deputy Ken O'Flynn asked the Tánaiste and Minister for Finance to indicate whether his Department has assessed the impact of hidden credit line exposures on Irelands compliance with EU fiscal rules; and whether any technical adjustments have been requested. [64824/25]
View answerI propose to take Questions Nos. 279, 286, 290, 292 and 318 together.
A report on ‘Interest-Rate Swaps & Fixed-Rate Loans: Hidden Credit Lines’ was recently published by an organisation called Bank Confidential. This report raises a range of allegations primarily related to the sale of interest-rate swaps to small and medium enterprises in the United Kingdom.
In line with best international practice, my Department regularly publishes debt sustainability analyses – scenarios outlining how the debt-income ratio would evolve in the event of scenarios such as economic shocks, inflationary pressures, a deterioration in the primary balance, or interest rate developments. See, for example, Section 5 of the Annual Report on Public Debt in Ireland 2023, at the below address.
assets.gov.ie/static/documents/annual-report-on-public-debt-in-ireland-2023.pdf.
The best way to ensure the sustainability of our public finances is by running headline budgetary surpluses and ensuring that our tax base remains stable, as well as investing ‘windfall’ tax receipts into the Future Ireland Fund and Infrastructure, Climate and Nature Fund to prepare for future structural costs. These funds were formed upon the dissolution of the National Reserve Fund in 2024. Government has committed to transferring 0.8 per cent of GDP to the Future Ireland Fund per year, in addition to investing €2 billion each year (to 2030) in the Infrastructure, Climate and Nature Fund. The total combined value of the funds will be approximately €16.7 billion by the end of 2025.
