The import/export flows across interconnectors are primarily driven by the price difference between the connecting markets. During periods of high prices in Ireland, interconnectors allow cheaper electricity to be imported, increasing supply and reducing wholesale prices. Interconnectors also enable the export of surplus renewables mitigating curtailment costs.
They enhance security of supply by providing new import routes and diversifying Ireland’s energy mix geographically, economically, and technologically, helping spread and reduce supply risks. Each new connection brings additional resilience to the grid and can provide energy when needed mitigating the need to rely on fossil fuel generation.
Connecting to the Internal Energy Market and Great Britain brings competitive pressure to Irish generators, ideally leading to price convergence between markets putting downward pressure on prices.
All interconnector projects are assessed by the Commission for Regulation of Utilities (CRU) to ensure they deliver net benefits for Ireland. The CRU oversees the allocation of efficiently incurred investment costs and their treatment in tariffs.
As part of the initial project assessment, the CRU looked at the impact of both interconnectors on the socioeconomic welfare (also called a public interest test). For Greenlink, this was carried out in June 2018. In October 2018, following consultation, the CRU determined (https://cruie-live-96ca64acab2247eca8a850a7e54b-5b34f62.divio-media.com/documents/CRU18216-Greenlink-determination-paper-1.pdf ) that the construction of the Greenlink interconnector was in the public interest as the Greenlink interconnector had the potential to provide a net benefit to Irish consumers and Ireland as a whole.
For Celtic, this assessment was carried out by the CRU in December 2018 ( CRU18265-Celtic-Interconnector-CRU-assessment-of-the-Celtic-investment-request-Consult.pdf ) and the analysis concluded that the Celtic interconnector would drive benefits for both Irish and French consumers.
The interconnectors will have an impact on wholesale price in the short term due to the price differentials between Ireland and GB/France. For example, we have mostly been importing on the Greenlink interconnector since it became operational which will assist in lowering the SEM wholesale prices.
Medium to longer term, multiple factors including interconnection, generation growth, and demand growth will influence wholesale prices. The precise benefits that will accrue to Ireland will depend significantly on the evolution of the Irish and connecting countries' markets.