Dáil Éireann Debate, Tuesday - 27 January 2026
864. Deputy Shane Moynihan asked the Minister for Children, Disability and Equality for an update on the development of the new forward planning model within her Department for early learning and childcare; whether any outputs or findings from the models' mapping of supply and demand are available at this stage; if such information can be shared by county or local area; and if she will make a statement on the matter. [5916/26]
View answerImproving access to quality and affordable Early Learning and Care and School Age Childcare is a key priority of Government.
Overall, early learning and childcare capacity is increasing. Data from the Annual Early Years Sector Profile in 2025 shows that the estimated number of enrolments has increased by 25% in the past three years. However, it appears that demand for Early Learning and Care and School Age Childcare remains higher than available supply in certain parts of the country, particularly for younger children .
The Forward Planning and Delivery Unit is pursuing an ambitious programme of work to identify areas of need, forecast demand, and deliver public supply within the childcare sector where required.
A forward planning model is central to this Department's plans to achieve the policy goals set out in the Programme for Government to build an affordable, high-quality, accessible early childhood education and care system, with State-led facilities adding capacity.
The first stage of development of the forward planning model is nearing completion. The model seeks to identify the nature and volume of different types of early learning and childcare places across the country and how that aligns with the numbers of children in the corresponding age cohorts at local area level. An extensive data analysis and cleaning exercise has been undertaken to map available publicly subsidised supply. This involved combining data from multiple administrative sources, including child population data, using GIS (Geographical Information System) mapping tools.
Work is continuing on the next stages of development of the Forward Planning Model, which will incorporate future demographic trends and new housing developments, among other features.
The analysis of the Forward Planning model provides a key input into the approach to the capital programme to be resourced through the allocation in the revised National Development Plan 2026-30.
The Forward Planning model has been designed primarily as a tool for internal analysis. The maps and data that the model produces contain protected categories of data and will therefore not be made generally available in full. As the model is further developed along with accompanying policy work related to supply, aggregated statistics, including statistics broken down by geographical area, may be made available if this is deemed compliant with data protection obligations.
Current data on childcare capacity at county level is available at [www.pobal.ie/childcare/capacity/].
