Dáil Éireann Debate, Tuesday - 10 February 2026
198. Deputy Naoise Ó Cearúil asked the Tánaiste and Minister for Finance his views on Ireland’s ability to maintain the downward trajectory of the debt-to-GNI* ratio, as required in the Medium-Term Fiscal and Structural Plan, in light of projected increases in capital spending; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [9954/26]
View answer225. Deputy Naoise Ó Cearúil asked the Tánaiste and Minister for Finance the way in which the Government intends to remain within the net expenditure growth ceiling set out in Ireland’s Medium-Term Fiscal and Structural Plan, given the projected upward pressure from age-related spending over the 2025–2029 adjustment period; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [9953/26]
View answerI propose to take Questions Nos. 198 and 225 together.
The Government published its Medium-Term Fiscal and Structural Plan (MTP) in December. The publication of the Plan represents a fundamental shift in the way budgetary policy is formulated in Ireland, pivoting towards medium-term budgeting.
The Plan is based on three core pillars: sustainability, resilience and readiness. Firstly, the Government will continue to increase expenditure in public services in a sustainable way. Secondly, we are committing to large-scale infrastructure investment to boost the resilience of our economy. Thirdly, we will keep saving for the future by running budgetary surpluses and setting money aside in the Future Ireland Fund (FIF) and Infrastructure and Infrastructure, Climate and Nature Fund (ICNF).
This strategy shows that the Government is intent on using the resources of the State to improve people’s lives, but in a sustainable way by taking into account future structural challenges such as population ageing.
To operationalise this, the Government has committed to fixed voted exchequer spending ceilings for the rest of the decade. These ceilings are then, in turn, reflected in the Net Expenditure growth path set out in the document. Ireland — like all member States — is required to set out expenditure in this way. Importantly, the ceilings set out in the MTP take account of cost drivers and incorporate policy decisions across a range of sectors, including the anticipated increase in age-or demographic- related costs.
On the basis of this strategy, the debt-to-income ratio is projected to fall by approximately 4 percentage points of GDP between 2025 and 2030. When scaled by GNI* — a better indicator of the size of the Irish economy — the debt-to-income ratio is also anticipated to continue to fall over the same horizon.
In addition to projected debt developments, the further accumulation of assets in the ICNF will, if needed, help smooth the economic cycle. Moreover, the FIF will provide some of the resources needed to meet structural challenges such as population ageing beyond the lifetime of this Plan.
