Beyond the political, security, consular and humanitarian consequences, the Government is carefully monitoring the overall economic impact of the current Gulf crisis. This conflict is the latest in a series of geopolitical and geo-economic events that has had the overall impact of heightening uncertainty.
The primary impact of the conflict so far has been the sudden and large scale interruption to oil and natural gas shipments from the Gulf region, which includes some of the world’s major producers. This has caused sharp rises in prices which potentially affect every country, and may also affect supplies of fertilizers, petrochemicals, and vitally important byproducts.
There has been some disruption to general trade due to reductions in flights and unavailability of the Gulf ports, but commercial flights have in many cases now resumed, albeit with some disruptions, and there are ports still free outside the immediate conflict zone.
The most important factor for long-term trade and economic prospects will be the duration of the conflict. A continuing war in the region – and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz – would likely impact the global economy and affect the prospects for growth in many countries. I am conscious that the economic effects of this crisis my be felt most in countries that are least prepared to respond, including vulnerable communities that will be most impacted by shortages of fertilizer at the beginning of the growing season.
My focus therefore, in concert with our European partners, has been to try and work for de-escalation and an end to the crisis. This has been a key theme in my many conversations with Foreign Ministers across the region since 28 February and in my engagement with EU counterparts.
More detailed analysis of the specific effects on the Irish economy is a matter for other Departments.