Dáil Éireann Debate, Wednesday - 13 May 2026
50. Deputy Cian O'Callaghan asked the Minister for Public Expenditure, Infrastructure, Public Service Reform and Digitalisation to set out the estimated cost of maintaining existing levels of service across the public sector in 2027; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [35437/26]
View answerThe Estimates for 2026 were developed using a new approach which replaced the previous “Existing Levels of Service (ELS)” approach. As a result, it is not possible to provide a directly comparable estimate of the cost of maintaining existing levels of service in 2027 on the same basis as under the methodology used prior to Budget 2026.
The focus is now on the totality of public expenditure, with an emphasis on the outputs and outcomes delivered, alongside the need for reform, efficiency, prioritisation and value for money. This approach was introduced to address a number of weaknesses identified in the ELS, including that it was not consistently defined or applied across Departments, tended to embed inefficiencies by incorporating previous overruns into the base, focused attention on a small marginal portion of the Budget rather than total resources, provided limited insight into outputs, outcomes or value for money, and did not support meaningful trade-off analysis across sectors.
Under the revised approach, the Estimates are constructed to better reflect where funding is being invested and the services being delivered across the public sector. This strengthens accountability and supports clearer policymaking, including improved assessment of trade-offs across sectors and alignment with population needs.
Expenditure ceilings to 2030 were set in Governments Medium-Term Fiscal and Structural Plan, which was published in December 2025. The ceiling for 2027 has been set at €125.5 billion. This will provide for increased investment across key public services in line with the Government’s policy priorities. The 2027 ceiling will fund the costs of maintaining service provision across all key sectors including our social welfare and health systems. It will also facilitate additional investment across a range of other policy areas including strategic capital infrastructure. Officials in my Department will engage with other Departments over the coming months to determine the final departmental allocations for 2027 as part of the annual Estimates process.
The Medium Term Expenditure Framework, published in September 2025, set out the Government’s multi-annual approach to planning and managing public spending. It identified a number of key cost drivers such as a growing and changing population, public service pay, and carryover costs from previous policy decisions. The Expenditure Report, published on Budget Day in October, outlines the high-level allocation for the upcoming year by Vote Group. The Revised Estimates Volume (REV), published in December, then provides detailed programme and subhead allocations along with performance information. The REV Estimate is voted upon by the Dáil.
