Dáil Éireann Debate, Tuesday - 26 May 2026
665. Deputy Ken O'Flynn asked the Minister for Housing, Local Government and Heritage whether projected inward migration figures are incorporated into social housing demand projections at national or local authority level. [38868/26]
View answer667. Deputy Ken O'Flynn asked the Minister for Housing, Local Government and Heritage whether any local authority receives migration-linked housing demand projections from his Department; and if so, to provide details of the local authorities involved and the nature of the projections provided. [38870/26]
View answer669. Deputy Ken O'Flynn asked the Minister for Housing, Local Government and Heritage whether the ESRI population projections underpinning the revised National Planning Framework include modelling of projected homelessness demand arising from population growth and migration patterns. [38872/26]
View answer670. Deputy Ken O'Flynn asked the Minister for Housing, Local Government and Heritage whether any interdepartmental working group exists between his Department and the Department of Justice, Home Affairs and Migration regarding migration-related housing demand forecasting; and if so, to provide details of its remit and meeting frequency. [38873/26]
View answer676. Deputy Ken O'Flynn asked the Minister for Housing, Local Government and Heritage if the ESRI population modelling underpinning the revised National Planning Framework included alternative low, medium and high net migration scenarios; and if he will provide details of each scenario. [39077/26]
View answer677. Deputy Ken O'Flynn asked the Minister for Housing, Local Government and Heritage if his Department has estimated the proportion of projected household formation to 2040 attributable to net migration under the baseline National Planning Framework population projections. [39078/26]
View answer678. Deputy Ken O'Flynn asked the Minister for Housing, Local Government and Heritage if any sensitivity analysis has been carried out examining how projected housing demand to 2040 would change under reduced net migration assumptions. [39079/26]
View answer679. Deputy Ken O'Flynn asked the Minister for Housing, Local Government and Heritage if projected housing demand under the revised National Planning Framework distinguishes between demand arising from natural population growth and demand arising from net inward migration. [39080/26]
View answer680. Deputy Ken O'Flynn asked the Minister for Housing, Local Government and Heritage if his Department has modelled the impact of migration trends on emergency accommodation demand, social housing demand and private rental demand separately. [39081/26]
View answer681. Deputy Ken O'Flynn asked the Minister for Housing, Local Government and Heritage if his Department has assessed the infrastructure implications arising from projected migration-related population growth under the revised National Planning Framework, including healthcare, education, transport and water services. [39082/26]
View answer682. Deputy Ken O'Flynn asked the Minister for Housing, Local Government and Heritage if a cross-departmental modelling framework exists integrating migration projections with housing demand forecasting and infrastructure planning. [39083/26]
View answer683. Deputy Ken O'Flynn asked the Minister for Housing, Local Government and Heritage if his Department will publish the underlying migration assumptions used in calculating projected housing demand under Delivering Homes, Building Communities 2025-2030. [39084/26]
View answer684. Deputy Ken O'Flynn asked the Minister for Housing, Local Government and Heritage if the revised National Planning Framework includes a scenario modelling examining the impact of lower net migration levels on projected national housing demand to 2040. [39085/26]
View answer685. Deputy Ken O'Flynn asked the Minister for Housing, Local Government and Heritage if his Department has quantified the projected number of additional housing units required annually under the baseline migration assumptions used within the revised National Planning Framework. [39086/26]
View answerI propose to take Questions Nos. 665, 667, 669, 670, 676, 677, 678, 679, 680, 681, 682, 683, 684 and 685 together.
The National Planning Framework (NPF) is the whole-of-Government strategy for strategic planning and sustainable development of our urban and rural areas to 2040, with the core objectives of securing balanced regional development and a sustainable ‘compact growth’ approach to the form and pattern of future development. The revision process was finalised and approved by Government and the Oireachtas in April 2025.
As part of the broader body of work undertaken to inform the First Revision to the NPF, the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) was engaged to provide updated population projections to 2040, based on demographic and econometric modelling, and having regard to the results of Census 2022 and other factors with potential to influence fertility, mortality and migration trends. Under the baseline scenario, the research projects that the population of the State will increase to approximately 5.7 million people by 2030 and 6.1 million by 2040. This projection forms the central core trajectory of projected population growth and underpins the strategy set out in the First Revision to the NPF.
The Government's new housing plan, Delivering Homes, Building Communities, seeks to significantly accelerate delivery of new homes by focusing on activating land and creating the optimal environment to encourage housing activity. This includes regulatory reform, tax incentives and the largest ever capital investment in the history of the State, with €275 billion to be invested in infrastructure over ten years through the National Development Plan. Delivering Homes, Building Communities sets a target of at least 300,000 homes to be delivered over its lifetime, which is based on a realistic, broad assessment of the housing system, including factors such as migration.
The Housing Needs and Demand Assessment (HNDA) Tool is a tool for the policy, strategic and statistical analysis of a local authority’s housing need and expected demand, allowing the authority to estimate the long term housing demand across tenures to better inform individual housing strategies and in providing an evidence base to support decisions regarding local housing output. This Tool allows local authorities to project emerging household demand in their area in a manner that is designed to be aligned with the NPF and Delivering Homes, Building Communities, while assisting each Local Authority in the development of their Housing Delivery Action Plan.
With regard to monitoring homelessness data and trends, my Department currently gathers and publishes data on a monthly basis that reports on the number of homeless persons accommodated in emergency accommodation funded and overseen by housing authorities. These reports are based on data provided by housing authorities, produced through the Pathway Accommodation & Support System (PASS). The monthly homelessness report includes details of individuals, families and the dependants of these families who accessed emergency accommodation during the relevant count week of the month in question.
My Department also publishes quarterly progress reports which are based on quarterly performance reports submitted by the nine regional lead authorities responsible for the administration of homeless services at local level. The quarterly performance reports provide regional data on the reasons for presentation of single and family households that presented at and entered emergency accommodation, as well as regional data on single and family household exits from emergency accommodation to a secure tenancy. The monthly homelessness reports and the quarterly performance reports are available on my Department’s website at the following link: www.gov.ie/en/department-of-housing-local-government-and-heritage/collections/homelessness-data/
The Department carefully monitors the data contained in monthly homelessness reports and the quarterly performance reports to identify trends and drivers of homelessness and uses this information to support informed policies and measures to address current and emerging needs. My Department takes account of the current costs, and forecasts the projected costs, arising from the provision of emergency accommodation and related services.
My Department is also working collaboratively with a wide range of other Government departments, led by the Department of Justice, Home Affairs and Migration, to develop a National Migration and Integration Strategy detailing how Government intends to meet the demands and the opportunities facing Ireland’s society and economy over the next decade with the aim to publish Ireland’s first overarching whole-of-government National Migration and Integration Strategy later this year.
