Dáil Éireann Debate, Thursday - 9 July 2026
195. Deputy Sean Fleming asked the Minister for Health her assessment of the recent ESRI projections of regional workforce requirements for HSE primary and community care services to 2040; and if she will make a statement on the matter. [48056/26]
View answerI welcome the Economic and Social Research Institute's (ESRI) report published last May which demonstrates the projected increases in HSE primary and community care workforce requirements, both nationally and regionally, out to 2040. This report forms part of a wider research programme and uses the ESRI’s Hippocrates model which has been developed under the ESRI/Department of Health Research Programme.
The research, funded by the HSE, considers a range of scenarios reflecting different assumptions about population growth and ageing, as well as changes in the mix of workforce involved in delivering care. The services examined include audiology, dietetics, occupational therapy, physiotherapy, podiatry, speech and language therapy and public health and community nursing.
My officials and I acknowledge the key findings from the ESRI's report. Driven by projected demographic change, particularly population ageing, workforce requirements for all staff categories examined are projected to increase substantially by 2040. The largest increases in workforce requirements are projected for services that currently focus on older people in the community, namely audiologists, occupational therapists, podiatrists and public health and community nurses, with average annual growth requirements of between 2.0 to 3.1 per cent to 2040. For the remaining professions (dietitians, physiotherapists and speech and language therapists), average annual growth requirements are projected to range between 1.0 and 2.1 per cent to 2040.
Furthermore, workforce projections are sensitive to assumptions regarding grade and skill mix. Across all services examined, skill mix assumptions had a substantial effect on projected requirements for advanced practice and clinical specialist roles. For most services, the largest projected increases in workforce requirements are observed in regions located in the east of the country. HSE report that waiting lists could not be included in the modelling due to data limitations. However, separate analysis of waiting list pressures indicates that more staff would be needed to address existing backlogs.
Sláintecare is working to build a health and social care service that is sustainable for the future. Increasing capacity, both in terms of workforce and infrastructure, along with productivity measures is key to address Ireland’s long-term demographic challenges.
Last year, we published Ireland’s Future Health and Social Care Workforce paper. This paper sets out an evidence based, strategic direction for the next 15 years—one that helps us plan proactively for the workforce we will need in the future. This paper details twenty actions to be taken in the years ahead to address future workforce challenges, and work has already progressed to advance these actions.
I wish to inform the Deputy that the ESRI's report broadly aligns with the findings of the “Ireland’s Future Health and Social Care Workforce” paper and broader research, highlighting that we need to significantly increase future supply of healthcare workers. These projections support our planning efforts to build capacity by understanding future workforce requirements to meet the needs of our future population.
The Economic and Social Research Institute Capacity Reviews commissioned by the Department of Health inform the demand projections within our paper and provide a crucial evidence base. Projections and gap analysis show an expectation of a shortfall across health and social care staff categories modelled.
The analysis also demonstrates that with the implementation of planned health policies and workforce reforms there will be an average annual growth rate required of approximately 1.4% to 2% from 2023 to 2040 for the professions modelled. Population demographics are the major driver for this increased demand.
The Deputy should note that significant work is underway to ensure that we have a sufficient health and social care workforce to meet the needs of our future workforce. There have been significant increases in the health and social care workforce in recent years. At the end of May 2026, employment levels show there were 154,875 WTE directly employed in the provision of Health & Social Care Services by the HSE and Section 38 hospitals & agencies. This is a 23% increase since 2020.
In addition to this, my Department is working closely with the HSE, Department of Further and Higher Education, Research Innovation and Science (DFHERIS), the Higher Education Authority and the HEIs to significantly expand domestic training capacity as a mechanism to build a sustainable Health and Social Care workforce to meet future population need for health and social care services.
In this context, I am pleased to note that Minister for Further and Higher Education announced €28.5 million investment in 2026 to support the delivery of more than 1,100 additional healthcare training places over the next three years across medicine, nursing, therapies, pharmacy, dentistry, social care, and veterinary medicine.
This investment includes a major expansion in Health and Social Care Profession (HSCP) Training Places announced by the Government in 2025, with 461 new places to be delivered in nine priority disciplines by 2028.
Additional expansion in priority HSCPs will also be determined through a new Expression of Interest (EOI) process launched by the Higher Education Authority on 29th of April this year. This process will support both the expansion of existing training programmes and the development of new ones.
