Ruth Coppinger
Question:379. Deputy Ruth Coppinger asked the Minister for Education and Youth the expected enrollment figures for a school (details supplied) for each year from 2027-2032 inclusive, in tabular form. [68195/26]
View answerTuesday, 29 September 2026
Questions (379)
Written answers
In order to plan for school provision and analyse the relevant demographic data, my department divides the country into 314 school planning areas and uses a geographical information system, using data from a range of sources, including CSO census data, child benefit and school enrolment data, to identify where the pressure for school places across the country will arise and where additional school accommodation is needed at primary and post-primary level.
Major new residential developments have the potential to alter the demand for school places at a local level. In that regard, as part of the demographic demand analysis, my department monitors planning and construction activity in the residential sector. This involves the analysis of data sources from local authorities and the CSO along with the engagement with local authorities and the construction sector. In this way, up-to-date information on significant new residential developments is obtained and factored into the demographic analysis exercise. This is necessary to ensure that schools infrastructure planning is keeping pace with demographic changes, at a local level, where there is a constantly evolving picture with planned new residential development.
My department conducts demographic analysis at both school planning area and settlement level. More granular analysis is carried out in areas encompassing both high growth urban settlement areas and a more rural hinterland. Our analysis of school place demand in urban areas experiencing high population growth has indicated that demand in the urban area can be 10-20% higher than the school planning area as a whole.
There is one primary school in the Ashtown Pelletstown LAP area. The school going population of this area is served by this school and other established schools in the Cabra / Navan Rd area.
My department does not project enrolment figures for individual schools.
The area covering the Ashtown Pelletstown LAP area is in the Cabra_Phibsboro_D7 school planning area (SPA). Primary level enrolments in the SPA had peaked in 2023, however, due to current and planned new housing developments, the primary school going population is projected to increase out to 2030. Similarly post-primary school going population is projected to increasing out to 2038. Population projections are developed using the current demographic of pre-school and school going children and young people living in the SPA plus the impact of internal migration due to the completion of new housing across the SPA. A significant number of new housing is projected for this area, with the planned regeneration of the Dublin Industrial Estate lands. If this does not materialise, the school going population is not projected to increase significantly.
Where demographic data indicates that additional provision is required, the delivery of such additional provision is dependent on the circumstances of each case and may, be provided through:
• Utilising existing unused capacity within a school or schools,
• Extending the capacity of a school or schools,
• Provision of a new school or schools.
If additional accommodation is required, the aim to try and facilitate this, as much as possible, by way of expansion of existing schools rather than establishing new schools. The expansion of existing schools is consistent with wider Government objectives under Project Ireland 2040 for an increased emphasis on compact growth. In respect of post primary schools, new post primary schools must have a student enrolment capacity of 600-1,000 students and must be co-educational. A lower threshold of 400 students may apply to gaelcholáistí, having regard to the alternative of establishing an Irish-medium unit (aonad) in an English-medium school.
New schools are only established in areas of demographic growth as the resources available for school infrastructure have to be prioritised to meet the needs of areas of significant population increase so as to ensure that every child has a school place.
The department will continue to liaise with Dublin City Council in respect of their county development plan and any associated local area plans with a view to identifying any potential long-term school accommodation requirements across school planning areas including Cabra_Phibsboro_D7.
Question No. 380 answered with Question No. 364.