Fiscal Planning Framework for Economic Certainty: Motion (Resumed) [Private Members]

The following motion was moved by Deputy Richard O'Donoghue on Wednesday, 27 May 2026:

That Dáil Éireann:

notes that:

— the sectors in the Irish economy such as farming, fisheries, construction and more generally small businesses and households have in recent years been repeatedly exposed to severe economic shocks arising from major international events outside the control of the State, including the Covid-19 Pandemic, the war in Ukraine, instability and conflict involving Iran and the wider Middle East, and ongoing international trade disputes and tariff wars;

— these events have contributed to sudden and dramatic increases in the cost of fuel, electricity, home heating oil, fertiliser, feed, transport, insurance, construction materials and essential consumer goods;

— the frequency and unpredictability of such global disruptions have created major uncertainty for family budgeting, business planning and investment decisions across the Irish economy;

— the current approach of Government has largely been reactive in nature, relying on ad hoc emergency interventions announced after price shocks have already inflicted financial damage on households and enterprises;

— while emergency supports introduced in recent years provided temporary relief, the absence of a clear and transparent framework has created uncertainty for workers, families and businesses attempting to plan ahead during periods of economic instability;

— sectors such as agriculture, haulage, fisheries, construction, hospitality and small retail are particularly vulnerable to sudden increases in fuel and operating costs, while ordinary households remain exposed to spikes in home heating, electricity and grocery prices;

— a proactive national framework for economic resilience and emergency fiscal planning would provide certainty, confidence and stability, by clearly setting out the measures that would automatically be considered or triggered during future crises; and

— such a framework should recognise that the State cannot prevent global crises from occurring, but can ensure that Irish citizens and businesses are not left without clarity as to how Government will respond when such events arise;

recognises that:

— certainty and predictability are essential for sustainable household budgeting, business continuity, employment retention and investment planning;

— businesses and industries require advance visibility regarding the potential activation of supports, reductions or temporary relief measures during periods of severe inflation or supply disruption;

— a transparent, trigger-based system would strengthen confidence in the Irish economy and reduce the uncertainty caused by improvised and delayed policy responses; and

— fiscal planning must move beyond crisis reaction and towards structured preparedness; and

calls on the Government to:

— develop and publish a "Fiscal Planning for Economic Certainty Framework", setting out predetermined economic support measures and response mechanisms, to be considered or activated during major international economic shocks;

— establish transparent trigger points, linked to measurable economic indicators including, but not limited to:

— fuel and energy price increases;

— inflation thresholds;

— supply chain disruptions;

— agricultural input cost spikes;

— international trade restrictions; and

— exceptional transport and logistics cost increases;

— outline, in advance, the range of temporary relief measures that may be introduced when such trigger points are reached, including:

— temporary reductions in excise duties on fuels;

— temporary reductions in Value Added Tax rates;

— targeted reliefs for the transport, farming, fisheries and small business sectors;

— temporary reductions or waivers in commercial rates;

— home heating oil and household energy supports;

— supports for low- and middle-income households facing exceptional cost-of-living pressures; and

— emergency liquidity and working capital supports for vulnerable industries;

— ensure that any framework introduced provides sector-specific certainty for strategic domestic industries, including agriculture, fisheries, haulage, tourism, retail and construction;

— provide for annual review and updating of the framework by the Department of Finance and the Department of Enterprise, Trade and Employment, in consultation with representative bodies, trade unions, SMEs, farming and fisheries organisations;

— prepare and publish annual stress-testing assessments, examining the resilience of the Irish economy to future international shocks and price surges; and

— report to Dáil Éireann within six months, on the establishment and implementation of this framework.

Debate resumed on amendment No. 1:

To delete all words after "Dáil Éireann" and substitute the following:

"notes that:

— the conflict in the Middle East has, once again, exposed the vulnerability of the Irish economy, and Irish society more generally, to imported fossil fuels;

— these strategic dependencies have major macroeconomic implications, the risks to macroeconomic and fiscal stability cannot be ignored;

— at a minimum, the large upward shift in energy prices is likely to impart a stagflationary impulse to the global economy, a combination of lower levels of economic activity alongside higher inflation;

— in response, the Government has taken appropriate and timely action to provide relief for households and businesses;

— the total budgetary cost of these support measures is of the order of €750 million this year, this is one the largest interventions of any country in the European Union, these measures reduce the annual rate of inflation in April, May, June and July by about 0.6 percentage points;

— these measures have cut Excise Duty on diesel by 32 cent per litre, and 27 cent on petrol, including the reduction in the National Oil Reserves Agency levy, reduced Excise Duty on green diesel by 7.4 cent per litre, increased repayments under the Diesel Rebate Scheme, and extended the Fuel Allowance to the end of April;

— the Government has also agreed to delay the increase in carbon tax to later in the year, and is introducing support schemes for the transportation and agricultural sectors, in total, these measures represent a significant investment of financial resources to support households and businesses, and will remain in place until 31st July, 2026; and

— the Government published its Medium-Term Fiscal and Structural Plan (MTP) in December 2025, setting out a medium-term fiscal strategy based on three core pillars, sustainability, resilience and readiness;

recognises that:

— a package worth €750 million of supports has been introduced by the Government within the framework of the Government's MTP;

— the MTP provides an appropriate fiscal framework that allows for the achievement of the Government's overarching aim to improve people's lives in a sustainable way;

— by setting an overall medium-term expenditure path, the design of this framework provides Government with the flexibility to respond to challenges, such as, the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on households and businesses, in a timely and proportionate manner, alongside the operation of automatic stabilisers;

— it sets out the Government's commitment to a balanced and sustainable approach to overall fiscal policy, ensuring we continue to target budget surpluses over the medium-term, and set aside some of the windfall to prepare for the future;

— the MTP supports progress on implementing the key social and economic priorities, while delivering on our commitment to sustainable public finances;

— it demonstrates the Government's commitment to using the resources of the State to improve people's lives in a sustainable way, it will act as the framework within which Government decisions will be taken during its term in office, it focuses on delivery, and allows for significant public resources to be directed at improving public services over a five-year period;

— it ensures that we have had the agility to respond, swiftly and forcefully, to help households, firms and sectors when necessary;

— consideration of any trigger points must be balanced in certain instances against the time lag inherent in economic data, which could delay timely Government responses;

— the Irish economy is facing its second fossil fuel shock in less than five years;

— fossil fuel dependence, especially imported fossil fuels, is a major economic vulnerability;

— analytical work will be undertaken by the Department of Finance to set out the key macroeconomic principles that should guide the medium-term transition to manage Ireland's strategic import dependencies; and

— the Government has also established the National Energy Affordability Taskforce to identify, assess and implement measures that will enhance energy affordability for households and businesses while delivering key renewable commitments and protecting security of supply and economic stability; and

acknowledges that:

— the geopolitical and economic outlook continues to be highly uncertain;

— in the Department of Finance's reference scenario, set out in the Annual Progress Report inflation is projected to average 3.3 per cent this year, 1.5 percentage points higher than assumed at budget time but still significantly lower than the 8.1 per cent rate recorded in 2022, after the last energy price shock;

— the economy is still expected to grow this year, albeit at a slower pace than previously forecast, and Government has committed to a range of temporary measures to mitigate the impact of increases in energy prices on households and businesses;

— the overall approach to budgetary policy must remain balanced and sustainable over the medium-term; and

— the Government will consider the continued impact of the energy shock on households, and make proportionate decisions in the forthcoming Budget within the parameters of the appropriate fiscal strategy set out in the MTP."

(Minister of State at the Department of Culture, Communications and Sport, Deputy McConalogue)

An Ceann Comhairle

I must now deal with a postponed division relating to the fiscal planning framework for economic certainty. On Wednesday, 27 May 2026, on the question, "That the amendment to the motion be agreed to", a division was claimed and in accordance with Standing Order 85(2), that division must be taken now.

Amendment put:

The Dáil divided: Tá, 80; Níl, 64; Staon, 0.

Tá

Aird, William.
Ardagh, Catherine.
Boland, Grace.
Brabazon, Tom.
Brennan, Brian.
Brennan, Shay.
Brophy, Colm.
Browne, James.
Burke, Colm.
Butler, Mary.
Buttimer, Jerry.
Byrne, Malcolm.
Cahill, Michael.
Callaghan, Catherine.
Calleary, Dara.
Canney, Seán.
Carrigy, Micheál.
Carroll MacNeill, Jennifer.
Cleere, Peter 'Chap'.
Clendennen, John.
Collins, Niall.
Connolly, John.
Cooney, Joe.
Crowe, Cathal.
Cummins, John.
Currie, Emer.
Daly, Martin.
Dempsey, Aisling.
Devlin, Cormac.
Dillon, Alan.
Dolan, Albert.
Dooley, Timmy.
Feighan, Frankie.
Fleming, Sean.
Foley, Norma.
Geoghegan, James.
Grealish, Noel.
Harkin, Marian.
Heneghan, Barry.
Heydon, Martin.
Higgins, Emer.
Keogh, Keira.
Kyne, Seán.
Lahart, John.
Lawless, James.
Lowry, Michael.
Maxwell, David.
McAuliffe, Paul.
McCarthy, Noel.
McConalogue, Charlie.
McCormack, Tony.
McGrath, Séamus.
McGreehan, Erin.
Moran, Kevin Boxer.
Moynihan, Aindrias.
Moynihan, Michael.
Moynihan, Shane.
Murnane O'Connor, Jennifer.
Murphy, Michael.
Naughton, Hildegarde.
Neville, Joe.
O'Brien, Darragh.
O'Callaghan, Jim.
O'Connor, James.
O'Donnell, Kieran.
O'Donovan, Patrick.
O'Meara, Ryan.
O'Shea, John Paul.
O'Sullivan, Christopher.
O'Sullivan, Pádraig.
Ó Cearúil, Naoise.
Ó Fearghaíl, Seán.
Ó Muirí, Naoise.
Roche, Peter.
Smith, Brendan.
Smyth, Niamh.
Timmins, Edward.
Toole, Gillian.
Troy, Robert.
Ward, Barry.

Níl

Bacik, Ivana.
Bennett, Cathy.
Boyd Barrett, Richard.
Brady, John.
Buckley, Pat.
Byrne, Joanna.
Clarke, Sorca.
Conway-Walsh, Rose.
Coppinger, Ruth.
Cronin, Réada.
Crowe, Seán.
Cullinane, David.
Cummins, Jen.
Daly, Pa.
Devine, Máire.
Doherty, Pearse.
Donnelly, Paul.
Ellis, Dessie.
Ennis, Daniel.
Farrelly, Aidan.
Farrell, Mairéad.
Gannon, Gary.
Gibney, Sinéad.
Gogarty, Paul Nicholas.
Guirke, Johnny.
Hayes, Eoin.
Hearne, Rory.
Kenny, Eoghan.
Kenny, Martin.
Kerrane, Claire.
Lawless, Paul.
Lawlor, George.
Mac Lochlainn, Pádraig.
McGettigan, Donna.
McGuinness, Conor D.
Mitchell, Denise.
Murphy, Paul.
Mythen, Johnny.
Nash, Ged.
Newsome Drennan, Natasha.
Ní Raghallaigh, Shónagh.
Nolan, Carol.
O'Callaghan, Cian.
O'Donoghue, Richard.
O'Donoghue, Robert.
O'Flynn, Ken.
O'Gorman, Roderic.
O'Hara, Louis.
O'Reilly, Louise.
O'Rourke, Darren.
Ó Broin, Eoin.
Ó Laoghaire, Donnchadh.
Ó Murchú, Ruairí.
Ó Súilleabháin, Fionntán.
Quaide, Liam.
Quinlivan, Maurice.
Rice, Pádraig.
Sheehan, Conor.
Sherlock, Marie.
Smith, Duncan.
Stanley, Brian.
Wall, Mark.
Ward, Mark.
Whitmore, Jennifer.

Staon

Tellers: Tá, Deputies Mary Butler and Emer Currie; Níl, Deputies Richard O'Donoghue and Ken O'Flynn.

Amendment declared carried.

Question put: "That the motion, as amended, be agreed to"

The Dáil divided: Tá, 80; Níl, 64; Staon, 0.

Tá

Aird, William.
Ardagh, Catherine.
Boland, Grace.
Brabazon, Tom.
Brennan, Brian.
Brennan, Shay.
Brophy, Colm.
Browne, James.
Burke, Colm.
Butler, Mary.
Buttimer, Jerry.
Byrne, Malcolm.
Cahill, Michael.
Callaghan, Catherine.
Calleary, Dara.
Canney, Seán.
Carrigy, Micheál.
Carroll MacNeill, Jennifer.
Cleere, Peter 'Chap'.
Clendennen, John.
Collins, Niall.
Connolly, John.
Cooney, Joe.
Crowe, Cathal.
Cummins, John.
Currie, Emer.
Daly, Martin.
Dempsey, Aisling.
Devlin, Cormac.
Dillon, Alan.
Dolan, Albert.
Dooley, Timmy.
Feighan, Frankie.
Fleming, Sean.
Foley, Norma.
Geoghegan, James.
Grealish, Noel.
Harkin, Marian.
Heneghan, Barry.
Heydon, Martin.
Higgins, Emer.
Keogh, Keira.
Kyne, Seán.
Lahart, John.
Lawless, James.
Lowry, Michael.
Maxwell, David.
McAuliffe, Paul.
McCarthy, Noel.
McConalogue, Charlie.
McCormack, Tony.
McGrath, Séamus.
McGreehan, Erin.
Moran, Kevin Boxer.
Moynihan, Aindrias.
Moynihan, Michael.
Moynihan, Shane.
Murnane O'Connor, Jennifer.
Murphy, Michael.
Naughton, Hildegarde.
Neville, Joe.
O'Brien, Darragh.
O'Callaghan, Jim.
O'Connor, James.
O'Donnell, Kieran.
O'Donovan, Patrick.
O'Meara, Ryan.
O'Shea, John Paul.
O'Sullivan, Christopher.
O'Sullivan, Pádraig.
Ó Cearúil, Naoise.
Ó Fearghaíl, Seán.
Ó Muirí, Naoise.
Roche, Peter.
Smith, Brendan.
Smyth, Niamh.
Timmins, Edward.
Toole, Gillian.
Troy, Robert.
Ward, Barry.

Níl

Bacik, Ivana.
Bennett, Cathy.
Boyd Barrett, Richard.
Brady, John.
Buckley, Pat.
Byrne, Joanna.
Clarke, Sorca.
Conway-Walsh, Rose.
Coppinger, Ruth.
Cronin, Réada.
Crowe, Seán.
Cullinane, David.
Cummins, Jen.
Daly, Pa.
Devine, Máire.
Doherty, Pearse.
Donnelly, Paul.
Ellis, Dessie.
Ennis, Daniel.
Farrelly, Aidan.
Farrell, Mairéad.
Gannon, Gary.
Gibney, Sinéad.
Gogarty, Paul Nicholas.
Guirke, Johnny.
Hayes, Eoin.
Hearne, Rory.
Kenny, Eoghan.
Kenny, Martin.
Kerrane, Claire.
Lawless, Paul.
Lawlor, George.
Mac Lochlainn, Pádraig.
McGettigan, Donna.
McGuinness, Conor D.
Mitchell, Denise.
Murphy, Paul.
Mythen, Johnny.
Nash, Ged.
Newsome Drennan, Natasha.
Ní Raghallaigh, Shónagh.
Nolan, Carol.
O'Callaghan, Cian.
O'Donoghue, Richard.
O'Donoghue, Robert.
O'Flynn, Ken.
O'Gorman, Roderic.
O'Hara, Louis.
O'Reilly, Louise.
O'Rourke, Darren.
Ó Broin, Eoin.
Ó Laoghaire, Donnchadh.
Ó Murchú, Ruairí.
Ó Súilleabháin, Fionntán.
Quaide, Liam.
Quinlivan, Maurice.
Rice, Pádraig.
Sheehan, Conor.
Sherlock, Marie.
Smith, Duncan.
Stanley, Brian.
Wall, Mark.
Ward, Mark.
Whitmore, Jennifer.

Staon

Tellers: Tá, Deputies Mary Butler and Emer Currie; Níl, Deputies Richard O'Donoghue and Ken O'Flynn.

Question declared carried.

Is féidir teacht ar Cheisteanna Scríofa ar www.oireachtas.ie.

Written Answers are published on the Oireachtas website.

Cuireadh an Dáil ar athló ar 8.46 p.m. go dtí 8.47 a.m., Déardaoin, an 28 Bealtaine 2026.

The Dáil adjourned at 8.46 p.m. until 8.47 a.m. on Thursday, 28 May 2026.

Dáil Éireann díospóireacht - Wednesday, 27 May 2026