Dáil Éireann Debate, Thursday - 4 July 2024
338. Deputy Rose Conway-Walsh asked the Minister for Social Protection further to Parliamentary Question No. 405 of 23 April and 209 of 30 May 2024, to provide updated long-term projections; how the level of pension and other social supports payments are calculated; whether they are adjusted in line with inflation; and if she will make a statement on the matter. [28759/24]
Amharc ar fhreagraThe position is unchanged with regard to Question No. 209 of 30 May 2024. No further projections are available at this time.
This Social Insurance Fund forecast is prepared annually for the Stability Programme Update and is produced on a no policy change basis. This means that potential future measures, such as increases to the rate of payment for social protection schemes were not taken into account. However, account was taken of measures that had already been announced when the forecast was produced. For example, the forecast took account of the future impact all Budget 2024 measures, even if they had not been implemented at the time the forecast was produced.
In relation to the expenditure forecasts, the following was taken into account:
• All measures included in Budget 2024 (note no provision for once-off measures in future years, including the Christmas Bonus)
• Increasing recipient numbers on pensions and related schemes due to demographics
In relation to the income forecasts, the following was taken into account:
• Macro-economic forecasts produced by the Department of Finance for the years 2024 to 2027
• PRSI increases of 0.1% from October 2024, 0.1% from October 2025, 0.15% from October 2026 and 0.15% from October 2027, which had been agreed by Government prior to the forecast being produced.
I also refer to Question No 405 of 23 April 2024 which includes cashflow projections for the Social Insurance Fund that factor in the estimated yield from the agreed PRSI increases from 2024 to 2028. I can confirm this estimate remains unchanged. Appendix 6 of the Actuarial Review of the Social Insurance Fund 31 December 2021 report contains the “Methodology, Data and Other Assumptions” used throughout the analysis. As regards the calculation used for projecting pension and other social supports payments, these benefits are modelled to increase from the 2023 levels in line with real wage growth.
I trust this clarifies the matter for the Deputy.
