I propose to take Questions Nos. 408 to 412, inclusive, together.
I am advised by Revenue that their micro-simulation modelling tool, Tax Modeller, is built to model scenarios on a taxpayer unit basis (i.e. including jointly assessed couples as one taxpayer unit). As such, it does not generate any outputs on an individualised basis, and it is therefore not possible to estimate changes to tax credits on an individual basis for a projected tax year, e.g. the tax year 2024.
However, incomes recorded on historic tax returns can be used to estimate the potential yield and/or cost associated with the adjustment of tax credits. As 2021 is the latest year for which full tax return data is currently available to be analysed, Revenue has undertaken estimates in relation to the 2021 tax year for the tapering of the tax credits referred to by the Deputy to provide an estimated yield that may arise from this proposal. This estimate is based on gross income.
It should be noted that although the values of the personal tax credit, PAYE tax credit and the earned income credit have increased since 2021, (as provided for in Budget 2022, 2023 and 2024), the 2021 values for the credits were utilised for consistency purposes in preparing these estimates. Based on this, I am advised by Revenue that the yield in 2021 from tapering the credits in the proposals outlined by the Deputy are available in the table below. Questions 33240/24 and 33241/24 are identical.
I am further advised that Revenue cannot provide estimates of specific aspects of the proposals in later years due to the unknown nature of the future tax base and future economic behaviour.
|
Proposal
|
First Year Yield €m
|
Full Year Yield €m
|
First Year Cost of Increasing Credits Value €m
|
Full Year Cost of Increasing Credits Value €m
|
Net Effect €m
|
Net Effect €m
|
|
Tapering personal, employee and earned income tax credits by 2.5% per €1,000 on individual income between €100,000 and €140,000 per year, resulting in no entitlement to these tax credits when income is in excess of €140,000.
|
325
|
395
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
325
|
395
|
|
Tapering personal, employee and earned income tax credits by 2.5% per €1,000 on individual income between €100,000 and €140,000 per year, resulting in no entitlement to these tax credits when income is in excess of €140,000 while increasing 2021 credit values by €50.
|
335
|
405
|
220
|
255
|
115
|
150
|
|
Tapering personal, employee and earned income tax credits by 2.5% per €1,000 on individual income between €100,000 and €140,000 per year, resulting in no entitlement to these tax credits when income is in excess of €140,000 while increasing 2021 credit values by €75.
|
340
|
410
|
330
|
385
|
10
|
25
|
|
Tapering personal, employee and earned income tax credits by 2.5% per €1,000 on individual income between €100,000 and €140,000 per year, resulting in no entitlement to these tax credits when income is in excess of €140,000 while increasing 2021 credit values by €100.
|
345
|
415
|
440
|
510
|
-95
|
-95
|