Dáil Éireann Debate, Thursday - 19 September 2024
91. Deputy Willie O'Dea asked the Minister for Housing, Local Government and Heritage his views on the publication of the 'ESRI Population Projections, the Flow of New Households and Structural Housing Demand' paper; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [36887/24]
Amharc ar fhreagra95. Deputy Richard Boyd Barrett asked the Minister for Housing, Local Government and Heritage if, in the aftermath of the Housing Commission report, he agrees that housing output should increase to 60,000 new homes per year to address future housing need and the current housing deficit; whether he agrees, given the chronic deficit of social and affordable housing, that at least 50% of this output should be social and affordable; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [37004/24]
Amharc ar fhreagraI propose to take Questions Nos. 91 and 95 together.
The recently published research by the ESRI on population growth and structural housing demand to 2040 provides a credible evidence-base for the development of revised housing targets by my department. Recognising the difficulty in accurately estimating population growth and future housing demand over the longer-term, the ESRI research presents 12 scenarios of housing demand. Each allows for alternative rates of increase in population growth, household size and stock obsolescence, key determinants of the quantum of housing required.
Taking the average of the 12 ESRI scenarios, the research suggests some 42,000 new homes would be required over the next decade to meet new household formation alone. This means, having regard also to pent-up demand, an average of at least 50,000 to 60,000 new homes would be needed per annum over the period.
I believe such an increase, a further step-change in the significant uplift in delivery in recent years, would go a long way to meeting existing and future demand.
While work is advanced, it is still too early to confirm what the final targets will be or their breakdown across tenures. That said, I believe social and affordable housing delivery should continue to comprise a very significant proportion of overall delivery. To this end, and having full regard to the Housing Commission's recommendations vis-à-vis the quantum of social and cost rental housing needed, I expect a significant increase in both to be reflected in the revised targets published later in the Autumn.
