Dáil Éireann Debate, Tuesday - 5 November 2024
644. Deputy Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire asked the Minister for Social Protection further to Parliamentary Question No. 342 of 8 October 2024, to confirm that the high scenario cost estimate of €2 billion is based on 201,600 carers (70% of those who self-reported in Census 2022) being eligible for carer’s allowance in the absence of the means-test; and if not, the number the high scenario is based on. [44186/24]
Amharc ar fhreagra645. Deputy Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire asked the Minister for Social Protection further to Parliamentary Question No. 342 of 8 October 2024, to confirm that the high scenario cost estimate of €2 billion is the resulting total cost of the carer’s allowance scheme if the removal of the means-test resulted in 70% of self-reports in the Census 2022 carers being eligible for carer's allowance; and the additional cost (in numbers of millions) of the high scenario once the 'no policy change' estimated expenditure on the carer’s allowance scheme is subtracted. [44187/24]
Amharc ar fhreagraI propose to take Questions Nos. 644 and 645 together.
Estimating the abolition of a means test is difficult and any such estimate is by definition high level and as such should be treated with caution as the actual outcome may be quite different. The key questions in any estimate of the additional cost if the means test was to be abolished are how many additional carers would qualify for a payment and at what payment rate.
For the purpose of the high level estimate below the more recent CSO Census data from 2022, which showed 299,000 people who “self-declared” on the census form as providing unpaid care at that time. This has been used to estimate a number in the order of about 351,000 self-declared carers for 2025. This is based on extrapolating the increase reported in the census period 2016 – 2022 forward by three years or an additional 17,333 Carers per annum. This approach means that there is potentially about 254,000 people not currently in receipt of a payment who might apply for a payment once the means test condition is removed. (i.e. the total estimated for 2025 of 351,000 minus the 97,250 carers already in payment).
The question then arises as to how many of these carers would qualify for a Carers’ payment. It is difficult to assess how many of the estimated ‘additional’ 254,000 carers might qualify but if we assume 70% would qualify then it is estimated that a further 178,000 people would qualify for a payment. This gives rise to an additional cost in the order of €2 billion, at current average payment rates over and above the current expenditure on Carer’s Allowance.
