Dáil Éireann Debate, Thursday - 10 April 2025
62. Deputy Darren O'Rourke asked the Minister for the Environment, Climate and Communications the way in which the Eirgrid All Island Resource Adequacy Assessment 2025-2034 (details supplied) will impact on energy supply in the years ahead; if it means that more renewable and less fossil fuel generation capacity will be required; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [17087/25]
Amharc ar fhreagraThe All-Island Resource Adequacy Assessment (AIRAA) is an electricity system security study that assesses the balance between electricity generation capacity and electricity demand over the next ten years. The recently published AIRAA 2025-34 shows an improved picture for Ireland's generation adequacy on last years study. This improvement is due to new generation capacity additions, an improved accounting of existing generation (including from renewables) and interconnection capacities. It is also due to risk mitigations, delivered by Government and State agencies, such as the delivery of Temporary Emergency Generation (TEG).
The Base and Secure scenario results in the AIRAA indicate adequacy challenges in 2025 and 2026, although these challenges are mitigated when the CRU security of supply programme out of market mitigations, such as TEG, are considered. The position improves in 2027 as the Celtic Interconnector is delivered and new gas capacity comes online. From 2028, the Base scenario indicates the system is operating within standard.
In their publication, EirGrid's median demand scenario forecasts demand to grow by 45% over the next 10 years, as we electrify heat, transport and digitise our economy. This will be met be delivering more capacity to generate electricity, both renewable and conventional, and by managing demand to better match times of surplus – what’s called ‘flexible demand’. Delivery of key infrastructure, including grid reinforcements and interconnection, will also be important in securing the electricity system.
As set out in the 2021 'Policy Statement on Security of Electricity Supply', the development of new conventional gas fired generation is a national priority and should be permitted and supported. This will ensure security of electricity supply and support the growth of renewable electricity generation. Dispatchable generation, such as gas fired generation, is necessary to meet electricity demand at times of low renewable output. However, as more renewables are delivered and energised over the coming years, dispatchable generation will be required to run less frequently over the course of a year.
