Dáil Éireann Debate, Thursday - 25 September 2025
188. Deputy Pearse Doherty asked the Tánaiste and Minister for Defence the estimated level of defence spending that will be needed in 2028 in order to reach €1.5 billion in 2022 prices; the amount that would be required in 2026 in order to reach €1.5 billion in 2022 prices; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [50860/25]
Amharc ar fhreagraThe Government approved the move to ‘Level of Ambition 2’ (LOA2), as set out in the capability framework devised by the Commission on the Defence Forces (CoDF) in July, 2022. This provided for a rise in the Defence budget to €1.5 billion, in 2022 prices, by 2028, as part of the annual Estimates process. The Estimate process encompass a twelve-month funding cycle, and is set within the broad macro financial parameters outlined in the prevailing Summer Economic Statement.
To date, these processes have delivered a funding increase of €243 million (22%) to the Defence Vote Group since the Government approved the Commission Report, with Budget 2025 providing an overall funding allocation of €1.35 billion to the Defence Vote Group – the largest allocation received to date.
Separately, but aligned with annual Estimates processes, my Department was recently allocated €1.7 billion in capital funding as part of the recent NDP review out to 2030. This represents an increase of €600 million (55%) on the previous baseline of €1.1 billion, and will provide almost €1 billion in Defence capital funding alone to 2028. The revised capital allocations will assist ongoing efforts at modernising and upgrading Defence equipment and built infrastructure platforms, and will enable targeted progression on key elements of Government commitments within LOA 2 (Enhanced Capability) objectives, as outlined in the Commission on the Defence Forces Report.
Average annual inflation rates fluctuate year on year, with very high rates observed in 2022 and 2023 in particular. Likewise, inflation forecasts can vary across organisations, with a short-term perspective generally adapted by most public sector bodies when forecasting. These variable factors, further exacerbated by ongoing and significant levels of geopolitical and economic turbulence, mitigate against the provision of any precise spending targets out to 2028 at this juncture.
It should also be noted that in determining an estimated level of spending out to 2028, the Commission Report outlined an approximate estimate of the likely overall costs of moving to LOA 2 rather than specifying annual targets to be achieved during the transition to that level. In that context, my officials are actively engaging with colleagues in the Department of Public Expenditure, Infrastructure, Public Service Reform and Digitisation on Budget 2026, and building on progress made over recent years, I remain hopeful of a positive outcome.
Similar to recent years, any increased funding will be used to enable further progress on the financial targets outlined within the Commission Report, while also ensuring that the Defence Forces continue to have the capacity to undertake all ongoing roles assigned by Government, both at home and overseas.
