Dáil Éireann Debate, Tuesday - 17 February 2026
305. Deputy Malcolm Byrne asked the Minister for Climate, Energy and the Environment to provide an update on Ireland’s progress toward meeting its 2030 sectoral emissions ceilings and whether any sectors are projected to miss their targets based on the most recent EPA modelling. [11937/26]
Amharc ar fhreagraAs set out in the Programme for Government, this Government is committed to delivering on Ireland’s responsibility to address the climate crisis. Ireland now has the lowest level of GHG emissions in 35 years, despite the concurrent unprecedented demographic and economic growth including an increase of approximately 1.5 million people, more than one million new homes and over one million extra vehicles on our roads.
We are making significant strides toward our target of 80% renewable energy by 2030 and we are now prioritising the development of offshore wind capacity. This Government has approved an unprecedented investment of €18.9 billion in Grid for the period 2026 – 2030 which is fundamental to the electrification of homes, businesses and transport. The 2025 ZEVI target for electrical vehicle sales of 195,000 was surpassed in October 2025 and I have just announced an unprecedented package of new and enhanced grants for homeowners across the country who are looking to benefit from home energy upgrades under the National Residential Retrofit Plan.
The Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) most recent emissions reporting (May 2025) confirms that Ireland has recorded overall greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions for a third consecutive year, with a decrease of 6.8% in 2023 followed by a further 2% reduction in 2024. The latest EPA quarterly indicator report for Q3 2025 indicates that emissions fell 2.8% in Q3 2025 compared with Q3 2024
The latest EPA projections report also highlights that meeting Ireland's 2030 target will be challenging, projecting a 23% reduction against the target of 51%. According to these projections, which are based on the latest available data, sectoral emissions ceilings for 2030 are projected to be exceeded by the Buildings, Electricity, Industry and Transport sectors; and met by the sector ‘Other’.
It worth noting, however, that the EPA's projections are updated annually in light of delivery progress and emerging data. As an example of the dynamic nature of these projections, the EPA's projected exceedance of the first carbon budget (2020-2025) has reduced significantly over the last two years. The report released in 2023 projected a significant exceedance of between 12% and 15% under the WAM and WEM scenarios respectively. In contrast, their latest report released in 2025 projected a marginal exceedance of the first carbon budget of between 2.7% and 4%, showing the effect of our efforts in the interim period.
The definitive assessment of Ireland's performance against the 2030 target will be made when the EPA produces its emissions inventory following the conclusion of the second carbon budget period in 2031. Any exceedances which have been formally identified at that point will be accounted for in subsequent budget periods in accordance with provisions of the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Act, 2015 (as amended).
In line with our Programme for Government commitment, enhanced implementation governance arrangements to support accelerated climate action delivery, have been put in place in 2025 to streamline structures, ensure key strategic projects are supported and that corrective action is taken quickly where delivery is at risk.
The Climate Action Delivery Board (CADB), which I now chair, and the Climate Action Programme Board (CAPPB) provide co-ordinated oversight and strategic direction on the delivery of the Climate Action Plan measures and actions and provide oversight and support to delivery taskforces in delivering their work programmes. Through these structures we will continue to focus on closing the gap to reach our 2030 targets.
