Climate Action Plan

Thursday, 19 February 2026

Ceisteanna (202)

Paul Lawless

Ceist:

202. Deputy Paul Lawless asked the Minister for Climate, Energy and the Environment in view of the Climate Advisory Council’s estimate that Ireland could face up to €26 billion in costs if 2030 climate targets are missed, whether his Department has carried out a cost–benefit analysis comparing the actual fines, penalties, and compliance costs the State has incurred to date under EU or international climate obligations; the projected fines, penalties, and compliance costs the State may face if targets are not met; the costs and benefits of using the same or equivalent funding for domestic climate mitigation and adaptation projects; to provide the findings of any such analysis; to provide a breakdown of annual actual and projected expenditure, including best-case and worst-case scenarios, for EU or international climate-related fines or penalties; carbon credit purchases or carbon market compliance costs; payments to international carbon offset schemes; any other payments directly tied to meeting Ireland’s climate obligations; annual Exchequer allocations to domestic climate adaptation projects over the same period; an explanation for any gap between projected fines and domestic climate spending, in tabular form; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [13724/26]

Amharc ar fhreagra

Freagraí scríofa

Minister for Climate, Energy and the Environment (Deputy Darragh O'Brien)

The EU Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) establishes for each EU Member State a national target for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions for the period 2021-2030. Since its revision in 2023 Ireland’s target to reduce emissions under ESR is 42% compared to 2005 levels by 2030.

Under the existing compliance arrangements, Member States can meet their targets through direct emissions reductions, as well as through additional compliance options provided for in the framework.

The framework does not provide for the imposition of direct fines or penalties, or the use of carbon credits or payments to international carbon offset schemes. However, it does allow for the purchasing of surplus allowances from overperforming Member States which could have significant costs. Estimating these costs requires working with significant data limitations as, at this point, there is no established market or set cost for allowances. This was noted by the Climate Change Advisory Council (CCAC) and the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (IFAC) in their report.

In relation to climate investment, including adaptation, the Department of Public Expenditure, Infrastructure, Public Service Reform and Digitalisation has been reporting the level of climate-related expenditure annually since 2019. Since 2024, this classification has considered a broader range of climate and environmental outcomes than emissions reductions alone, and now outlines the allocation of expenditure with an expected impact in relation to biodiversity, pollution, water and marine resources, the circular economy, and on adaptation and resilience. The identification and classification of expenditure is validated and updated every year before being published in the Revised Estimates Volume for Public Services (REV). All outputs of this work are publicly available on that Department’s website at gov.ie.