The independent scientific advice, received from the Technical Expert Group on Salmon (TEGOS), assesses which rivers are likely to meet their conservation limits using probability thresholds. The TEGOS Report looked at all 144 salmon rivers using a range of thresholds from 75% to 99% and sets out the status of each river at each threshold level. While the scientific advice provided by TEGOS sets out the various threshold options, it does not prescribe the threshold to be use. Similarly, the precautionary principle, which underpins the EU Habitats Directive, does not prescribe a probability threshold.
The draft Regulations published for public consultation last November used an 85% probability threshold as a starting point for consultation with stakeholders. The purpose of the consultation was to invite feedback from stakeholders on this proposal. Section 69 of the Inland Fisheries Act 2010 obliges me to publish the draft regulations for consultation and also allows me to modify the draft regulations following consideration of submissions received.
The change from an 85% to a 75% probability threshold was informed both by science and stakeholder responses. This change applies nationally to all 144 designated salmon rivers not is not specific to the Lough Corrib SAC.
The probability threshold remains unchanged from previous years at 75%. This has been the core scientific standard used in Ireland since 2007 and maintaining this baseline ensures continuity, consistency and comparability with previous stock assessments and policy decisions. I am satisfied that the proposed approach is science-based and consistent with EU precautionary principles and international best practice.
