There are a number of very significant differences in the nature of the two shocks.
For instance, the key economic transmission channel from the conflict in the Middle East is through higher energy prices whereas during COVID oil prices recorded significant declines.
Notwithstanding this, under both shocks the economic outlook was clouded in considerable uncertainty.
The appropriate response in such circumstances is to engage in scenario analysis, stress testing our core beliefs on how the economy might evolve over the coming period.
In light of this uncertainty, my Department continues to monitor developments closely and will publish its spring economic forecasts in the Annual Progress Report (APR) later this month. This will include a central scenario as well as adverse alternative scenarios where there is a more pronounced and persistent disruption to energy supplies.