The situation in the Middle East and the future path of commodity prices clearly remains highly uncertain.
Ireland, as a net energy importer, will, of course, be negatively impacted by the significant increase in energy prices that we have seen in recent weeks. These increases have already fed into higher fuel prices for households, farmers and businesses.
My Department's spring economic forecasts as set out in the Annual Progress Report (APR) include a reference forecast for headline inflation where headline inflation averages 3.3 per cent.
As well as the reference projection, adverse two alternative scenarios where there is a more pronounced and persistent disruption to energy supplies are detailed in the APR. In an 'adverse' scenario inflation averages 3.7 per cent this year, while in a 'severe' scenario where there is pronounced and prolonged increase in energy prices inflation averages 4.6 per cent.
I am acutely conscious of the real pressures that higher energy prices have placed on households and businesses - in particular on hauliers, farmers, and transport operators.
In response, Government has announced a package of measures that will help mitigate the financial costs arising from the increases in fuel and energy costs. These measures, when taken with those already introduced in March, include a reduction in excise tax on petrol by a total 27 cent per litre, diesel by a total of 32 cent per litre and marked gas oil by a total of 7.4 cent. As well as reductions in excise, Government will defer the planned increase in carbon tax, scheduled for May 1st, until the Budget. This will impact green diesel and non-propellant fuels such as kerosene heating oil, natural gas and solid fuels. The Fuel Allowance scheme was also extended by an additional month, which will provide support to some 470,000 households.
To support the haulage and coach sector, the Government will establish a new Road Transporters Support Scheme (RTSS). This will provide direct payments to the haulage and coach operators. The Diesel Rebate Scheme was also enhanced to provide support to the haulage sector.
Government has also announced a comprehensive Fuel Subsidy Support Scheme to assist farmers, agricultural contractors and fishers facing unprecedented increases in fuel costs. This will provide with funding directly linked to fuel usage last year to ensure those most impacted by the fuel price increase receive the greatest assistance.
These temporary supports strike an appropriate balance by supporting households and businesses affected by rising energy costs, without adding unduly to inflationary pressures.
Government will continue to monitor the situation as it develops over the coming weeks and months.