Dáil Éireann Debate, Thursday - 14 May 2026
390. Deputy Ken O'Flynn asked the Minister for Housing, Local Government and Heritage whether any modelling has been carried out estimating the proportion of projected housing demand to 2040 attributable to net migration assumptions within the revised National Planning Framework population projections. [36355/26]
Amharc ar fhreagraThe National Planning Framework (NPF), is the whole-of-Government strategy for the sustainable development of our urban and rural areas to 2040, with the core objectives of securing balanced regional development and a sustainable ‘compact growth’ approach to the form and pattern of future development. The NPF (originally published in 2018) was revised and approved by Government and the Oireachtas in April 2025.
As part of the broader body of work undertaken to inform the First Revision to the NPF, the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) was engaged to provide updated population projections to 2040, based on demographic and econometric modelling, and having regard to the results of Census 2022 and other factors with potential to influence fertility, mortality and migration trends. Under the baseline scenario, the research projects that the population of the State will increase to approximately 5.7 million people by 2030 and 6.1 million by 2040. This projection forms the central core trajectory of projected population growth and underpins the strategy set out in the First Revision to the NPF.
The Government's new housing plan, Delivering Homes, Building Communities, seeks to significantly accelerate delivery of new homes by focusing on activating land and creating the optimal environment to encourage housing activity. This includes regulatory reform, tax incentives and the largest ever capital investment in the history of the State, with €275 billion invested in infrastructure over ten years through the National Development Plan. Delivering Homes, Building Communities sets a target of at least 300,000 homes to be delivered over its lifetime. The Government’s target is based on a realistic, broad assessment of the housing system, including factors such as migration.
The Programme for Government contains a commitment to publish a National Migration and Integration Strategy detailing how Government intends to meet the demands and the opportunities facing Ireland’s society and economy over the next decade. My Department is currently working collaboratively with a wide range of other Government departments, led by the Department of Justice, Home Affairs and Migration, to develop this strategy with the aim to publish Ireland’s first overarching whole-of-government National Migration and Integration Strategy later this year.
