Dáil Éireann Debate, Tuesday - 23 June 2026
116. Deputy Roderic O'Gorman asked the Minister for Climate, Energy and the Environment the current assessment and contingency plans being considered by his Department relating to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current and its increasing risk of collapse which would have devastating impacts in Ireland; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [46962/26]
Amharc ar fhreagraThe Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a crucial component of the global ocean circulation system, responsible for transporting warm water from the tropics to the North Atlantic. A significant weakening or collapse of the AMOC could mean harsher winters, more frequent and intense storms, and disruptions to marine ecosystems in Ireland.
I am advised that Met Éireann has a team of ocean modelling experts working on AMOC research activities to better understand this issue in an Irish and regional context including how AMOC can be best captured within existing climate scenario data.
The Irish Government maintains a watching brief on research related to AMOC with particular regard to the likelihood of an AMOC slowdown. The outputs of ongoing climate research on AMOC will inform future policies on how to respond.
The National Adaptation Framework (NAF) notes the risks to Ireland from climate tipping points, including from changes to the AMOC. Ireland’s NAF is reviewed at least every five years to account for updated climate science, including updated research related to AMOC.
Following approval of the latest NAF, 10 Sectoral Adaptation Plans (SAPs) covering 13 key Sectors were approved and published by Government in November 2025. These SAPs were informed by the National Climate Change Risk Assessment (NCCRA) and by standardised Met Éireann climate data produced under the TRANSLATE project.
The NCCRA, published in June 2025, specifically outlines the AMOC’s low likelihood but high-impact challenges to Ireland. Preliminary work on a new NCCRA to be completed before 2030 has already commenced by the EPA.
A new Adaptation Taskforce was established in January 2026 and is monitoring delivery of adaptation actions and addressing cross-cutting issues and risks in a holistic way. The next meeting of the Taskforce will include an agenda item on AMOC including the latest analysis and an update on ongoing and planned research.
